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Morocco appears to have reached its cruise speed in this decades-spanning race to end the frustratingly lingering dispute over the Western Sahara. Less than a week ago, Kenya – once a stronghold of Polisario separatism and one the most vocal supporters of Algeria’s hegemonic agenda in Morocco’s southern provinces – expressed its full endorsement of the Moroccan autonomy proposal.
If that was disorientating and perplexing for Algeria’s increasingly cornered and besieged foreign policy establishment – and it no doubt was – now imagine what Algiers’ frustrated and overwhelmed strategists may think or make of the bombshells — though not exactly surprising — decision by the UK to back Morocco’s position on the Sahara. Such a strong endorsement from a permanent member of the UN Security Council, which has in effect joined the growing list of countries that clearly support the Moroccan position, is not merely symbolic.
From Nairobi to London: an irreversible shift in global consensus
It is rather a ringing indication of an increasingly irreversible evolution. As I and many others have suggested over the past few years, highly symbolic and politically significant decisions like this one are a clear sign that it is only a matter of time before Morocco resolves this territorial dispute. It may take longer than many in Morocco would like or hope. However, judging from the endless waves of declarations supporting Morocco’s plan and presenting it as the only viable and most realistic option, Morocco closer to the finishing than ever before.
Yet it came as no surprise that, just a few hours after the UK announced its support for Morocco’s Autonomy Plan as the only pragmatic and feasible political horizon for the Western Sahara region, Algeria responded in its usual manner. In a visibly feeble statement whose sincerity and accuracy could convince no serious or diligent observer of the changing tides in the long-running Sahara saga, Algeria attempted to dismiss the UK’s newfound position as having on real effect on the outcome of the dispute.
In essence, says this unconvincing and stuttering Algerian statement, this latest announcement from the UK is just another non-event in the imaginary procession towards an independence referendum in the Sahara. Make no mistake: In the imagined, fictitious world of official Algeria, the irrepressible Moroccan momentum on the Western Sahara question is a figment of Rabat’s imagination. This is a textbook case of denial as a strategy and diversion as a survival mechanism to make the cascading trauma-inducing changes much more palatable and survivable for Algeria’s battered foreign policy.
I have written extensively about this Algerian mentality in my latest book on the Western Sahara and in other articles over the years. As such, it would suffice now to only recall that, to the dismay of Algiers and its Polisario proxy, this decision by the UK deepens what I described in my latest articles as signs of the beginning of the end of their separatist dreams in Morocco’s southern provinces.
And so, to make sense of London’s announcement, it is essential to place it into some kind of broader context. Following the US recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the Western and Spain and France’s respective decision to follow in its footsteps, it was time for the UK to come out of its comfort zone by adopting a position that reflects the excellent level of its relations with Morocco, which has reached new heights over the past six years.
In that sense, as an extension of the mood and reality created by Washington’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty in late 2020, the United Kingdom’s long-overdue decision to back the Moroccan autonomy proposal as the only basis to reach a political solution to the Algeria-engineered dispute over the Sahara is another devastating blow to the the Algerian regime’s separatist project in southern Morocco. And so, whatever dismissive superlatives Algeria may come up with to complement its first official response to this new reality, the fact remains that London’s new position on the Sahara further entrenches Algeria’s isolation at the regional and international level. Never has Algeria been dealt such a series of devastating blows in such a short period of time.
Algeria’s deepening isolation and desperation
What makes this pill even harder to swallow for Algeria is that it comes while the country is a non-permanent member of the Security Council. Making a reading of the geopolitical landscape and the diplomatic dynamics of the dispute that is completely out of sync with the reality on the ground in the Sahara dossier, the Algerians were banking on their presence at the Security Council to blunt the positive momentum that Morocco has succeeded in building around its position in recent years.
And yet, like the newfound positions of France and Spain, the UK’s clear support for Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara is highly significant since this country was the only European power that, prior to Morocco’s loss of independence and subjugation by France and Spain in 1912, had signed the treaty of March 13, 1895 recognizing that present day Western Sahara was part of Morocco’s territory.
Moreover, Britain played a central role in the Franco-Spanish agreement of October 1904 that gave Spain the Sahara in “full possession and sovereignty” without consulting Morocco, although the North African nation was still an independent and sovereign country.
In fact, the dispute was created when, in the secret agreement it signed with France in April 1904, Britain allowed the latter to grant Spain a sphere of influence in southern Morocco. At the same time, however, Britain made sure that neither France nor Spain could take any action that might alienate the territory. The terms of that agreement simply speak volumes about Britain’s recognition that the disputed territory was historically part of Morocco.
Today, the three European countries that held primary responsibility in the genesis of the conflict – France, Spain and the UK – have come to terms with the relentlessly gathering facts on the ground. Some might see in this the return of history with a vengeance, the suggestion being that one cannot escape from shouldering one’s historical responsibility. What there is a kernel of truth to that historical reading, the more important aspect of this emerging new reality in the Sahara equation stems from cold, pure political realism on the part of French, Spanish, and British elites. In the rapidly evolving global landscape where Morocco is poised to become a significant player, these countries are awakening to the fact that the preservation of their strategic interest with Rabat, be it at the bilateral or multilateral level, requires that they clearly support the Moroccan stance on the Sahara dispute.
This development, a clear rebuke to Algeria’s military junta, marks a turning point in the diplomatic landscape surrounding the conflict, as well as the total collapse and resounding failure of Algeria’s separatist agenda.
A historic correction with sweeping strategic implications
Coming on the heels of Kenya’s unambiguous endorsement of the Moroccan autonomy proposal, the UK’s decision brings Morocco closer than ever before to closing this dispute. Differently put, the UK’s move provides Morocco with more leeway to dictate the rules of the games in any potential negotiations with the other parties of the dispute in the future.
It is true that the UK’s newly announced position has fallen short of literally following in the footsteps of the United States and France by fully recognizing Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara. But by expressing its full and unequivocal endorsement of the Moroccan autonomy plan, the UK has taken a first a decisive step towards righting the historical wrong it caused to Morocco when it decided to dispose of its territory and participated in its dismemberment. The fact that it has announced its decision to inject five billion British pounds to fund projects across Morocco, including in the southern provinces, is in itself a clear indication of where the UK stands regarding Morocco’s sovereignty over the Western Sahara.
But diplomacy is an incremental process. Nothing is resolved overnight, and patience and strategic persistence are essential. I have no doubt that, as Morocco will garner more global support for its position and will strengthen its positioning as an emerging powerhouse in its immediate region and beyond, the UK will go a step further in supporting Morocco by fully recognizing its sovereignty over the Western Sahara.
Source: Morocco word news
