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The 2025 federal election seemed to have all the makings of a breakthrough for Canada’s New Democratic Party.
Polling shows voters want change. The Liberal Party is leaderless. Plus, those vying to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have promised policies that would move the party back to the political centre, leaving the NDP to pursue progressive policies like taxing the wealthy.
But at this point, at least, many things don’t seem to be working in their favour.
“The NDP, federally, is in really bad shape,” said Rob Ashton, a British Columbia labour leader who is part of the broader union movement that traditionally backs New Democrats nationwide.
“It’s pretty bad when workers of this country start running towards the Conservative Party.”
Time is not on the New Democrats’ side. In a recent memo to candidates, party headquarters warned that they should be ready for a snap election as early as March 10.
Double trouble
But weeks before a possible spring election, New Democrats are in double trouble. The party’s polling average is at its lowest level since June 2020, and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh’s unfavourability rating is growing.
According to CBC’s Poll Tracker, the NDP sits at a new low, below 16 per cent, falling farther behind the Conservatives and Liberals in a distant third place.
The poll tracker compiles and averages publicly available opinion polls of decided and leaning voters. The polls are weighted by respondents’ age and sample size, as well as by the polling firm’s track record and past performance.
According to David Coletto, the founder and CEO of Abacus Data, some of the NDP’s support has gone to the Conservatives.
“I think Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives have been working to welcome them into the party, and I think so far it’s been working,” Coletto said.
But he said the NDP is also hurting from excitement around Mark Carney, the perceived front-runner in the Liberal leadership race.
Like all parties, Coletto said, U.S. President Donald Trump and his threat of tariffs have upended the NDP’s political strategy. Voters, he said, are consolidating around the Conservatives or the Liberals “in a time of crisis.”
It found that Singh had the lowest net favourability score among party leaders and Liberal leadership candidates, especially from middle-aged and older men.
“So if you are Jagmeet Singh, none of this is good news,” said Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute. “It truly represents a white-knuckle moment for the NDP and for the leader.”
Singh answered questions about his party’s polling fortunes and the growth in support for the Liberals on Tuesday.
“We’ve seen this before any leadership race. There’s a bump for the party, particularly when the leadership race involves determining who the current Prime Minister will be,” Singh said.
“But there’ll be an important election, and campaigns matter.”
The NDP says fundamentally, they’ll be asking voters if their lives are any better after nine years of Liberal government.
Anti-Singh ads
The party has also struggled to define Singh and promote its achievements as a party with fourth-party status, said Brad Lavigne, the NDP’s national campaign manager during the 2011 federal election.
He said one reason voters may be falling out of favour with Singh is because they have seen the onslaught of negative ads Conservatives have targeted at Singh.
Conservatives have accused the NDP of blocking their attempts to vote non-confidence in the Liberal government because Singh wanted to qualify for his MP pension (even though Poilievre’s is three times larger) before Canadians go to the polls.
“They get to dictate the terms of the political discourse because they have the money to advertise,” Lavigne said of the Conservatives.
“So where is the NDP’s money to advertise, to either counter the Conservatives’ offer or to set the terms of the political conversation themselves?”
In 2024, the NDP raised $6.2 million, less than half the Liberals’ total and dwarfed by the $41.7 million the Conservatives raised.
“That’s a new level of political campaigning that the NDP needs to rise to,” said Lavigne. “It can’t be satisfied with merely getting its message out through a handful of email lists or legacy media.”
Lavigne said that the NDP may have grown complacent after spending the last couple of years governing with the Liberals through the supply-and-confidence agreement. That agreement assured New Democrats their priorities would be advanced, including in dental care, pharmacare and anti-replacement worker legislation.
On Friday, the NDP announced it had released “its first pre-election TV ad.” The 30-second spot features Singh in a boxing ring.
Drifting away from its labour socialist roots?
Not all unions are unhappy with the NDP. The United Steelworkers backed the party’s plan for “mandating the use of Canadian steel” in all federally funded infrastructure projects.
But others say the NDP needs to return to its roots and target working-class Canadians.
“I know a lot of my members don’t trust them anymore,” said Ashton, the president of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union.
Ashton said New Democrats repeatedly voted confidence in the Liberals while they imposed binding arbitration on unionized workers — which workers see as the equivalent of legislating striking workers back to work.
Many of these votes where required under the supply-and-confidence deal.
Ashton said the NDP has wandered away from its base in favour of messaging with broad political appeal.
He pointed to the party focusing on the cost of groceries instead of improving wages or protecting jobs from automation.
“What are we doing to increase wages? What is the NDP doing to protect jobs?” Ashton said.
Ashton said unionized workers need a more aggressive NDP leader who isn’t afraid to vote against the governing party if they advance anti-worker policies.
Canadian politics content creator Steve Boutilier (Steve Boots) describes himself as “fairly left of centre,” but he is also disillusioned with the NDP.
Boutilier, a Regina-based political YouTuber and podcaster, recently posted a video titled Jagmeet Singh Has Failed.
“It’s just a tremendous sense of frustration with Jagmeet Singh’s failure to meet the moment,” Boutilier said in an interview with CBC News. “He is as well positioned as an NDP leader could imaginably be.”
Source: cbc
