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Three years ago, I suggested that Kenya’s endorsement of Morocco’s autonomy plan for the Sahara, and its rejection of the separatist project, was a matter of time. In September and November 2022, I published two articles analyzing and outlining the factors that would ultimately drive Kenya to align with the Moroccan position on the Sahara question.
I elaborated further on Kenya’s evolving stance in the book I published last year, reiterating that its unequivocal support for Morocco’s proposal was imminent. Kenya on Monday has officially declared that Morocco’s autonomy initiative represents “the only sustainable approach” to resolving the Western Sahara dispute. A clear rebuke to Algeria’s military junta, this development marks a turning point in the diplomatic landscape surrounding the conflict, as well as the total collapse and resounding failure of Algeria’s separatist agenda.
With Kenya now having officially joined the growing number of countries backing Morocco’s sovereignty over its southern provinces, the country is closer than ever to bringing this issue to a definitive close. I cannot say with certainty whether the dispute will be resolved this year, but all indicators suggest that Morocco is approaching the finish line.
The Bourita effect
Still, there should by now be little disagreement over the idea that Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita ranks among the most accomplished figures to have overseen contemporary Morocco’s foreign policy—if not the most accomplished of all. His tenure has coincided with an era of unprecedented diplomatic breakthroughs in some of the most critical areas for Moroccan foreign policy. On the Western Sahara front in particular, his tenure has enabled Morocco to achieve what I described in one passage of my latest book as a historic “remontada.” That is, Bourita’s visionary and effective leadership at the helm of Moroccan diplomacy has made possible a sweeping comeback that has ultimately allowed Morocco to dismantle decades of Algerian diplomatic gains on the Western Sahara and other strategic fronts.
Bourita has thus proven to be the ideal executor of the foreign policy vision of King Mohammed VI. He has undertaken numerous initiatives that have generated a diplomatic momentum unlike anything Morocco has witnessed before, chief among them the strategy of convincing an increasingly expanding cohort of countries to open consulates in the Sahara. His term has also been marked by the successful appointment of seasoned ambassadors in key, strategic capitals, many of which were once strongholds of separatist, pro-Poliario sentiment. Winning over these capitals, or at least convincing them to adopt a position of positive neutrality on the Western Sahara dossier, has been one of the most defining markers of the effectiveness — or even genius — of Moroccan diplomacy under Bourita. For context, Algeria had long relied on some of those capitals to prolong the dispute and, in the words of the late President Houari Boumediene to a number of Polisario leaders, including Bachir Dkhil, turn it into a “stone in Morocco’s shoe.”
Kenya’s recent, unequivocal declaration that Morocco’s autonomy plan is the only viable foundation for a political solution to the Sahara dispute marks yet another milestone in Morocco’s diplomatic achievements over the past decade. This shift is especially significant considering this African country’s early and persistent support for the separatist agenda backed by Algeria. For years, Kenya exerted considerable diplomatic effort at the multilateral level, particularly within the United Nations and the African Union, to obstruct Morocco’s attempts to garner international backing for its position.
Even after Morocco’s succeeded in neutralizing the African Union’s role in the dispute—beginning with the 2018 summit in Mauritania—Kenya was among the African states that fiercely and relentlessly advocated for the need for the AU to play a central role in the UN-led political process. Nairobi notably supported the appointment of former Mozambican President Joaquim Chissano as the African Union’s envoy for the Sahara and pushed for him to brief the UN Security Council in April 2016, a move that Moroccan diplomacy successfully blocked.
What a good ambassador can do
With the benefit of hindsight, a compelling case can now be made that one of Bourita’s most astute decisions as minister has been his proposal to appoint Dr. Mokhtar Ghambou as Morocco’s ambassador to Kenya. That the appointment came at a time when Kenya was among the fiercest defenders of the separatist thesis in the Western Sahara dossier spoke volumes about his confidence in Ghambou’s potential to convince the Kenyan political establishment to reconsider their take on this lingering territorial dispute.
What’s more, appointing an ambassador to Nairobi at a time when Kenya had no diplomatic representation in Morocco was an indication of the resilience and foresight of Moroccan diplomacy over the past two decades. It spoke of a proactive strategy to engage countries outside Morocco’s traditional “comfort zone” in West Africa, with which it shares longstanding historical ties.
Following his appointment, Dr. Ghambou led a tireless campaign to open lines of dialogue and cooperation with all stakeholders of Kenyan society: political actors, civil society, academia, and media.
As someone who closely monitors this dossier, I observed firsthand the extraordinary diplomatic work Dr. Ghambou undertook during his tenure at the Moroccan Embassy in Nairobi. He knocked on every possible door. During the period when William Ruto was still Vice President, Dr. Ghambou held multiple meetings with him, as well as with various ministers, and members of parliament across Kenya’s political spectrum.
By April 2021—over a year before Ruto’s rise to the presidency—signs of Morocco’s diplomatic success in Kenya had begun to emerge. Several Kenyan media outlets, as well as Morocco World News, and Maghreb Arab Press (MAP), reported that Ruto, then Kenya’s Vice President, supported the Moroccan autonomy initiative. That development came on the heels of a meeting between the Moroccan ambassador and the Kenyan official at the ambassador’s residence in Nairobi.
These early signals culminated in August 2022, shortly after Ruto’s election as President, when he published a post expressing support for Morocco’s position—only to delete it later. Nevertheless, it was a clear indicator that a portion of Kenya’s political elite had grown increasingly aware of the shifting geopolitical dynamics across Africa and recognized the strategic benefits of recalibrating Kenya’s position to align with those realities.
These developments also demonstrated that Moroccan diplomacy had been working relentlessly and preemptively to engage Kenya and steer it away from the hostile stances it had historically adopted toward Morocco’s territorial integrity.
To give credit where it’s due, Ambassador Abderrazzak Laassel—who succeeded Dr. Ghambou in April 2022 and brings with him vast experience in both bilateral and multilateral diplomacy— has proven to be a worthy successor. Since taking office, he has built on the diplomatic groundwork laid by his predecessor and has worked tirelessly to consolidate trust with Kenya’s political, economic, academic, and media elites, making the case that deepening relations with Morocco serves Kenya’s national interests.
In this sense, Morocco is now gradually harvesting the fruits of the African policy launched by King Mohammed VI nearly two decades ago. As a result, the number of countries that support Morocco’s position has risen to 117.
This growing support stems from two key factors. First, it reflects the esteem and strategic value Morocco enjoys at the regional, continental, and international levels—thanks to its rising economic and security stature and the eagerness of global partners to deepen ties with the Kingdom. Second, it is the product of the evolving dynamics of the UN-led political process, and the implicit acknowledgment by the Security Council that a lasting solution to the conflict cannot be found outside the framework of Moroccan sovereignty.
The end of the Sahara conundrum is closer than ever
With the tremendous diplomatic momentum Morocco has built over the past two decades, it can now be said that the country is closer than ever to definitively resolving the Western Sahara dispute. Some might argue that, following this latest breakthrough, Morocco’s next step should be to seek the expulsion of the Polisario from the African Union. In my view, such a move may be premature at this stage. What Morocco should focus on in the near term is working toward the removal of the Sahara from the list of non-self-governing territories on the UN General Assembly’s agenda.
As I emphasize in the conclusion of a new book I will publish this summer on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the Green March, Morocco—thanks to growing international support for its sovereignty over the Sahara—is now in a position to push for the removal of this agenda item from the UNGA agenda.
Considering the diplomatic backing Morocco has garnered over the past ten years for its territorial integrity, and the growing isolation of Algeria—regionally, continentally, and internationally—the current geopolitical environment offers Morocco a historic opportunity to rally the necessary support to achieve this goal.
According to Rule 22 of the UN General Assembly’s Rules of Procedure, “items on the agenda may be amended or deleted by the General Assembly by a majority of the members present and voting.” Given that 117 out of the 193 UN member states currently support Morocco’s position, there is a strong likelihood that Morocco could secure the required majority—98 votes—to remove the from the General Assembly’s agenda.
Once the Polisario loses the symbolic legitimacy that the General Assembly has long granted it, its presence in the African Union will become indefensible. This would in turn strip Algeria of one of the last remaining tools it uses to prolong the conflict, effectively depriving the Algerian regime of the leverage it has long exploited.
Source: Morocco word news
