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Across the United States, tens of millions of Americans will head to the polls today to cast their vote for president, among other offices. Millions have already voted in person or by mail. Television networks are ready for election night coverage that includes interactive digital maps, reporters across the country, and polling experts scouring local exit polls for any emerging national trends. A political version of Super Bowl Sunday.
Former President Donald Trump (78) is seeking to regain the office he lost to Joe Biden four years ago. Vice President Kamala Harris (60) would become the nation’s first female president.
Important segments of both the Republican and Democratic coalitions may deliver surprising ballot box results this year based on several critical issues: the ongoing Middle East conflict, U.S. border and immigration policies, personal health/reproductive rights, housing affordability, and climate change.
It may be a long night, too. When the polls close at 7:00 p.m. Tuesday in the western battleground state of Nevada it will already be 4:00 a.m. Wednesday morning in Morocco.
Five things to look for as election night unfolds.
1. Pennsylvania results. The important East Coast battleground state has 19 electoral votes. The polls close there at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time (2:00 a.m. Wednesday in Rabat). Trump won the state in 2016 by just 44,000 votes out of more than six million cast. In 2020, Biden won the state by about 82,000 votes out of nearly seven million votes cast. By midnight Tuesday, two thirds of the state’s ballots should be counted and reported in Pennsylvania.
A key local vote that may indicate who is in a better position to win the state: Bucks County (pop. 645,000) in the northern suburbs of Philadelphia. Biden won the vote in Bucks County by four-and-a-half percent in 2020. It is eighty percent white and becoming more diverse. Almost half the population has a bachelor’s degree or higher.
Bucks County votes may indicate what level of support Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have among college educated suburban voters in the U.S.
2. African American voters. This important group is 14% of the U.S. population and has traditionally voted heavily for Democratic candidates in past decades. Exit polls in 2020 showed that Biden won 87% of Black voters. In 2024, there are signs that Trump is gaining support among Black men, particularly those under fifty years old. An August NAACP survey of 1,000 registered Black voters across the U.S. revealed 26% of Black men under 50 said they supported Trump.
An August Pew Research Center survey indicated that 77% of Black voters say they would vote for or prefer Kamala Harris—a high number but ten points below the mark reached by Biden in 2020.
Georgia results may reveal much. By 7:00 p.m., exit polls (random sample surveys of voters taken as they leave their polling place) coming from the Atlanta metro area may indicate how well Biden and Trump are doing with African American voters in the nation’s eighth most populous state.
3. Latino-Hispanic voters. Almost 20% of the U.S. population identifies as Latino or Hispanic. From Florida to California, Miami to San Diego, North and South, the important American demographic encompasses very diverse political preferences. A new Florida International University poll indicates 68% of likely Cuban American voters in Florida’s largest county, Miami-Dade, prefer Trump.
Farther west, about one-quarter of voters in Arizona identify as Latino. A recent poll in the state indicates Harris has a lead over Trump among Latino voters, 51% to 32%. About 17% are undecided.
Biden’s smallest state victory in 2020 was Arizona—he won the state by less than 11,000 votes out of more than three million cast. Arizona vote results will likely indicate the popularity of Trump and Harris positions on immigration and border control policies, among other issues.
4. A male-female divergence among young voters under thirty. Diverging political preferences between young men and young women are now becoming significant according to many national polls this year. The Trump campaign has aggressively sought the support of young male voters this year, including an extended interview with podcaster and UFC commentator Joe Rogan.
Averaging three New York Times/Siena polls this year indicates Trump is leading Harris by twenty points among 18 to 29-year-old young men, 58% to 37%. But Harris holds an even larger lead over Trump among young women in those polls, 67% to 28%.
A recent Harvard Youth Poll survey shows a sizable difference between young men and women (18 – 29) preferences for president. Likely male voters: Harris 53% – Trump 36%; likely female voters: Harris 70% – Trump 23%.
The poll survey also showed peer influence is an important factor in young adult voting participation: 79% plan to vote if they believe their friends are going to vote. The question every four years: Will young voters show up on election day in large numbers?
5. Key battleground states: The Blue Wall versus the Sun Belt. The three Blue Wall states are Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The three have traditionally voted Democratic in presidential elections in past decades but Trump won all three in 2016. Biden won them all back in 2020. The populations of all three states include a mix of diverse metropolitan area urban residents, those working in manufacturing as well as rural farmers and agriculture industry workers.
The Sun Belt battleground states are North Carolina, Georgia, and farther west, Nevada and Arizona. These states are fast-growing and include the metropolitan areas of Las Vegas, Atlanta, and Phoenix, now the fifth largest city in the United States.
Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona have traditionally voted Republican in presidential elections. Biden won Arizona and Georgia in 2020 by a total of just 22,000 votes. There has been a noteworthy political shift leftward in these three states that is driven by diverse migrant communities, growing metro area populations and growth in young college educated residents.
Perhaps the big question in these battleground states: Whose supporters are most motivated to show up and vote. A very small number of voters are undecided this year. Will local issues influence their decision to head to the polls? Which candidate was preferred by the millions of early voters across the country?
The nation will soon know—or perhaps may have to wait several more days.
Source: Morocco word news
