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If or when Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals succeed in cobbling together a majority in the House of Commons, it will surely be one of the most unique majorities in Canadian political history — cobbled together from 166 MPs elected as Liberals last spring, at least four floor-crossers and perhaps two or three byelection victories.
Those four party-switchers are remarkable enough. But they have now come from two different parties — the Conservatives and the NDP — that are, for the most part, diametrically opposed. Until today, it might have been hard to imagine that Matt Jeneroux, elected four times as a Conservative in Edmonton, and Lori Idlout, elected twice as the NDP MP for Nunavut, could sit in the same party caucus.
At the very least, the narrative that Carney was governing like a Progressive Conservative is somewhat more complicated now.
Pending any further floor-crossings — and at this point it would seem foolish to assume there won’t be more — the extent of a Liberal majority now hinges on the fate of three byelections, two of which the Liberals are widely expected to win.
Victories in University-Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest — two Toronto ridings the Liberals won comfortably less than a year ago — would bring the Liberals to 172 seats. At that point, the government could have some assurance of its ability to at least survive any confidence votes in the House.
A win in Terrebonne — where a rare judicial annulment has necessitated a byelection — would bring the Liberals to 173 seats. At that point, the Liberals could gain a majority on House committees and have a freer hand to advance legislation without having to negotiate compromises with the opposition.
The potential ramifications of Idlout’s move are thus not small. But they also extend in several different directions.
NDP shrinks further, Poilievre cools his heels
For the NDP, a party already brought to a historic low by last year’s election, this is yet another blow.
Fifteen years ago, the NDP won 103 seats in what seemed to be an electoral breakthrough for the traditionally third-place party. Its next leader — who is set to be chosen at the end of the month — will inherit a caucus of six MPs, at most. If Alexandre Boulerice follows through on a move to provincial politics in Quebec, the NDP will be down to five MPs.
For the Conservatives, Idlout’s move was another chance to restate their argument that something underhanded is afoot.
“Mark Carney is using backroom deals to seize a costly majority that voters rejected,” Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre argued in a social media post.
Whether there is a wrong way to gain a majority in the House of Commons is a philosophical question that can be debated endlessly. But if, as opinion polls suggest, the Liberals have opened up a sizable lead over the Conservatives, the Conservatives might not actually mind being assured that the next federal election won’t happen anytime soon.
Liberal MP Chris d’Entremont — the first MP to join this government from the Conservatives in November — said he reached out to support Nunavut MP Lori Idlout when she crossed the floor to the Liberals from the NDP Tuesday night.
Of late, Poilievre’s Conservatives have seemed keen to be seen working constructively with the Liberals. But in the context of a hung Parliament — where no party has a majority — such collaboration can be necessary, at least so long as one wishes to avoid an election. In a majority situation, an opposition party is much more free to oppose without consequences.
So if the math changes, will the Conservative opposition’s demeanour also change?
Unlike the last three floor-crossings, this one does not reflect directly on Poilievre’s leadership. But it might now remain to be seen how well his leadership will hold up over three more years in opposition.
What would Carney do with a majority?
If Carney does get to a majority, what would he do with it? Would he be motivated to pursue an even bolder agenda?
For the Liberals, there is no obvious downside to welcoming Idlout into the fold. But there is probably some risk of triumphalism.
The last time a governing party moved from a minority to a majority was Stephen Harper’s Conservatives in 2011. After governing for five years with only a minority government — and against a backdrop of global instability — Harper insisted on the need for a “strong, stable, national majority government.”
The NDP only have six seats in Parliament after Nunavut MP Lori Idlout said she was crossing the floor to join the Liberal Party, putting Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government two seats short of a majority. Interim NDP leader Don Davies said MPs should ‘go back to the voters’ if they want to change parties.
He got what he wanted. And after largely governing as a pragmatist for the first half of his time as prime minister, Harper moved more boldly with a majority (changing the age of eligibility for Old Age Security and overhauling environmental regulations, among other moves), attracting no small amount of criticism in the process.
Four years after winning a majority, Harper was out of power completely — replaced by a Liberal majority.
It’s hard to know whether Harper could have avoided defeat by governing more cautiously, but there is probably some reason for the Liberals, if soon freed from the constraints of minority government, to guard against overreach or overconfidence. Voters might not worry too much about how Carney gets his majority, but they likely will care about what he does with it.
If the Liberals do get to a slim majority, what leverage remains in the House of Commons could actually shift to the Liberal backbench — a backbench that has shown itself at various points to possess some amount of independent thought. If the Liberals are sitting at 173 or 174 seats, it would only take two or three backbenchers dissenting to endanger government legislation.
Such a majority would also be vulnerable to the personal decisions and events that regularly lead to resignations and byelections during the life of a Parliament.
Getting to a majority would be, by any measure, a historic achievement for Carney and the Liberals, particularly given that 16 months ago he was a private citizen and the Liberals were polling 20 points behind the Conservatives.
But getting to a majority would be less the end of the story than the start of an interesting new chapter.
Source: Morocco word news
